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Effect of Data Length on Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation Using Hershfield Method

N VIVEKANANDAN

Abstract


Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a particular geographical location and at a particular time of year. PMP is used for estimating probable maximum flood which, in turn, is used for design of major hydraulic structures such as dams and spillways, flood protection works and nuclear power plants. One of the commonly used methods for estimating PMP is the statistical method, also called Hershfield method that involves computation of frequency factor, adjustment of the frequency factor and estimation of PMP. This paper presents a study on effect of data length on estimation of PMP using Hershfield method for Afzalpur, Aland and Kalaburagi sites. For this purpose, the annual 1-day maximum rainfall series derived from the daily rainfall data is used to create the rainfall series with different data length viz., R1 with 30 years data, R2 with 40 years data and R3 with the entire available data, and used for estimation of 1-day PMP. The outcomes of the study indicate that the estimated PMPs are in decreasing order when data length increases for Aland and Kalaburagi. The study presents that the estimated PMP using R2 series is higher than those values of R1 and R3 series for Afzalpur.


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References


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