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Decision tree method (Flexibility in adaptation - FIA) for evaluating the flexibility of flood risk adaptation options in Lad Krabang, Thailand

Polpat Nilubon, William Veerbeek, Chris Zevenbergen

Abstract


Flexibility in planning and implementation of responses to prevent and adapt to flooding can be achieved using methods such as Real in Option (RIO), Adaptation Tipping Point (ATP) and Adaptation Pathway. However these methods lack the ability to evaluate the degrees of flexibility of the adaptation measures. Hence, this paper proposes a method for evaluating and making a comparison between a numbers of different flood prevention plans in terms of their degree of flexibility in adaptation inherent in the measures being used. The methodology is based on decision-tree theory, which assigns a score to the potential for flexibility in a measure. This modeling process is driven by a simulation which is based on one of two hypotheses: early or late adaptation. Upon application in the Lad Krabang district of Bangkok, it was found that the early adaptation hypothesis was more efficient in dealing with the effects of climate change. Using weighted values, characteristic for the early adaptation hypothesis, the clustering approach provided a high flexibility score. Hence, this methodology will be of assistance to the stakeholders (designers, local authorities and local residents) in the decision-making process to obtain the available degrees of flexibility in the future Flood Risk Management adaptation measures (FRM), which can also be used in other fields and systems.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.37628/jwre.v5i1.468

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